August 27, 2014

New Marquette poll has Mary Burke 2 points ahead of Scott Walker with likely voters, and 4 points behind with registered voters.

"Poll director Charles Franklin called the results 'the epitome of what a horse race looks like.'"

Also in the poll: "A solid majority, 54 percent, say the state is heading in the right direction, while 42 percent say it's on the wrong track...."

ADDED: The new poll has Walker with 47.5% and Burke at 44.1% among registered voters, while last month it was 45.8% percent support, with Burke at 44.8%. Likely voters are identified by Marquette as those who say they are "certain to vote in November’s election," and it's Burke 48.6%, Walker 46.5%. In July it was Burke 46.8%, Walker’s 46.3%.  The questionnaire (PDF) asks people whether they are "Absolutely certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November, and I wonder what the spread would be if the "Very Likely"s were included. Who can be "Absolutely certain" that they will even be alive in November? It would seem that they are screening for fuzzy thinkers and liars.

In the comments to this post, sane_voter said: "The first poll in history where the Dem does better with likely voters. I call BS." I found this WaPo article that addresses the question why Republicans always seem to do better with "likely voters":
This isn’t always true. The likely voter population is different in midterm versus presidential elections. Midterm elections, in which there is no national candidate and less of a focus on a broad, national campaign attracts different types of voters. Specifically, non-white and younger voters have been less apt to turn out for midterm elections. 
That article also looks at how pollsters screen for likely voters: How do pollsters identify likely voters?
1. Screening questions: Pollsters ask respondents screening questions about past voting and/or vote intention and set a threshold of who is considered a likely voter (this is the Post’s standard method). The Post begins by excluding those who are not registered to vote and uses questions to predict voting such as past voting behavior, self-reported vote intention, interest in the election and knowledge of one’s voting place to further thin the herd. A related method uses similar questions to assign each respondent a likely voter score based on how many questions they answer “correctly” (e.g. Did you vote in the most recent presidential election? Yes = 1 point). Gallup and the Pew Research Center employ methods like this.

2. Voter list sampling: Campaign pollsters typically use voter lists to recruit respondents, targeting those who have voted in a particular set of recent elections according to voter registration files. This method is often combined with the screening questions above to establish voter likelihood.

3. Probability-weighted models: Less commonly used is a “probability voting” model for identifying likely voters. Probability voting models assign probability of voting on a 0 to 1 scale for each respondent and weight results by this. In other words, if a respondent is considered 66 percent likely to vote and another 33 percent, the first respondents’ vote choice will receive twice the weight in data. CBS News, the New York Times and Marist College polls have employed such models in the past.
This seems so much more sophisticated than what Marquette seems to be doing!

45 comments:

mccullough said...

Let's see if the contributions to Burke start increasing. Seems to be the goal of this poll.

sane_voter said...

The first poll in history where the Dem does better with likely voters. I call BS.

Bruce Hayden said...

The first poll in history where the Dem does better with likely voters.

Exactly my thoughts seeing this article. Republicans almost always do better in polls with likely voters, and Democrats with registered voters.

Big Mike said...

@sane_voter and @Bruce Hayden, the unions will be doing everything to turn members into certain voters, even more so than usual. In Walker's shoes I'd have a big time GOTV effort.

Bob Ellison said...

If Walker loses, will that signal that America is lurching leftward?

Wisconsin may be the bellwether.

garage mahal said...

Don't understand how Walker is this close. But it's Burke's race to lose now.

n.n said...

mccullough:

The "better safe than sorry" voting doctrine? You never know who is auditing your vote, let alone your tax returns. The Democrats have a clear lead in this field.

damikesc said...

Like NYC, if Wisconsin votes for Burke, they deserve everything that happens to them.

Michael K said...

I just got a "push" message that
"Madison.com" wants to send me stuff. Sounds like a lefty poll that is pushing hard.

chickelit said...

Don't understand how Walker is this close. But it's Burke's race to lose now.

A Presidential endorsement could widen the gap for her.

Bobber Fleck said...

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has been playing the "John Doe" investigation hard. The JS has done all they can to help Burke. My local paper, the La Crosse Tribune, does daily hit pieces on Walker and fluff pieces on Burke.

Burke remains an empty vessel. She has no platform other than to be "not Scott Walker". She does, however, give coy winks to the liberals who hate Walker.

Eventually, Scott Walker will use his war chest to define Burke, just as the Milwaukee JS has attempted to define Walker as the sleazy target of endless investigations.

There will be two debates. Walker is a good communicator and is pretty good on his feet. He will force Burke to take positions and defend them. This will be an interesting fall.

chickelit said...

sane_voter said...
The first poll in history where the Dem does better with likely voters. I call BS.

Suppose that some are just overenthusiastic about executive amnesty and instant voting rights?

chickelit said...

This will be an interesting fall.

Nice double entendre!

mccullough said...

According to a Marquette poll one month before the recall election in 2012, Walker trailed Barrett by a point.

MadisonMan said...

Yet 54% think the state is going in the right direction.

How could Burke be swimming upstream against that?

Something is fishy.

garage mahal said...

Walker never trailed Barrett in any Marquette polls.

Beta Rube said...

I agree with Madison Man. I wonder how many incumbents have lost with 54-42 advantage in right direction polling.

David said...

garage mahal said...
Walker never trailed Barrett in any Marquette polls.


And with your usual care and attention to detail, you have studied whether the polling techniques used in this poll were the same as in the ones you reference, right?

Chance said...

So if Walker loses does that mean we can finally stop with the silly speculation that he could win the Republican nomination?

Guildofcannonballs said...

"Don't understand how Walker is this close. But it's Burke's race to lose now."

This is funny and I appreciate the solid effort.

Thank you.

Remember: Harvard teaches never admit any fault ever, unless in the act of admition you gain more than you lose through the admition.

So, say "yeah he is Goebels or Pol Pot's top dude BUT MY OPPONENT ISN'T HITLER. Nor Pol Pot.

Not yet anyway if you excercise your power.

garage mahal said...

And with your usual care and attention to detail, you have studied whether the polling techniques used in this poll were the same as in the ones you reference, right?

Not sure what you mean, I referenced the same polling outfit. Has Charles Franklin changed his methodology from last year? Not that I'm aware of.

garage mahal said...

"The first poll in history where the Dem does better with likely voters. I call BS."

The very last poll from Marquette had Burke up 1% with likely voters.

Are we drifting back into unskewing the polls?

Guildofcannonballs said...

Let us all stipulate any candidate that states they will, or Hell even might, win, and fails, is thereby forever excluded from any type of consideration for anything ever.

Even Democrats (and of course the Lying Liars Who Lie of the GOP) will claim they will win, they will then, some at least, lose, and then we can always and forever declaim our superior life/destiny/progeny to those who fail to predict the future 100 per cently.

Walker 52 Burke 47.5 Election Day, with roughly 2.1 per cent if Burke's votes bullshit and nearly .0019 per cent of Walker votes fraud.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Rand Paul might say " it is a crime in America in 2014 any man or woman lacks an ID to vote. I will dedicate up to $500 Billion in order to help guarantee every American can excercise their right to help slelect their government.

And I will put in jail as my executive constitutional obligations require for the maximum term anyone at any level who helps perpetuate either (A) Men and Women in America without an ID and (B) anyone conspiring to keep perpetuating or to help commit vote fraud like we see all across Democrat districts each and every election."

Guildofcannonballs said...

How much worse would American life be if $100 Billion from the defense budget were directed toward free-market solutions that anti-lawyer organizations might propose?

My contention is $100 Billion per year to fight our domestic law worshipers would gain hundreds of billions in regulation-tariff gain plus instill confidence we aren't being raped daily.

Mark said...

Hey McCullough:

The same pollster ran the MU Law poll last time around. Recently they have been closest in the WI Gov races of any major poll.

From the poll announced a week ahead of the recall:
"The seven-point advantage for Walker was statistically unchanged from the six-point margin two weeks ago in the Marquette Law School poll taken May 9-12, when Walker had 50 percent to Barrett’s 44 percent."

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2012/05/30/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-walker-leads-barrett-in-wisconsin-recall/

The Democratic Gov primary was May 8, there were only two polls by Marquette during the race.

When you do not get the results you want, it's time start `unskewing'. That worked so well with Romney.

I just wonder if the Sept 9 US Circuit hearing of John Doe is going to be open to reporters as their standard policy is. That's going to be a hoot either way.

Wonder if they will rule of the WI Gay Marriage ban AND John Doe before the election, or just the Marriage Ban.

Walker has more crap coming his way ...

Guildofcannonballs said...

I conducted a pole.

Cost $80 but she followed the directions.

I see the angles, per Tom Reagan.

Titus said...

Have u been to Vermont Althouse? We are going this weekend.

U should visit Vermont, u would love it.

Totally rural, yet totally liberal and beautiful.

Go Mary.

Vermont is fab.

tits.

Original Mike said...

"Who can be "Absolutely certain" that they will even be alive in November?"

You really don't think death would stop them from voting, do you?

Ann Althouse said...

Of course, I've been to Vermont. I've traveled all around New England.

mccullough said...

Mark,

Marquette did a poll just before the primary showing that Barrett was well ahead of his primary opponent in the polls and was also leading Walker by a point. That was one month before the recall election.



Anonymous said...

"From the poll announced a week ahead of the recall:"

Good, then we can probably count on the polls a week ahead of the election.

Pollsters are smart to do this. They can tell you want you want to hear all year. But they need to get the last few polls, at least close.

mccullough said...

Titus,

Vermont has the most permissive gun laws of any state. Great place.

Mark said...

McCullough- its the likely voter number they always refer to within the poll ... which in the poll you link has Walker up.

The 'all registered voters' number Barrett led was not the takeaway number like here with Burke up. The MU Law people say that Walker has never been down with the number they consider their prediction. Until now.

Alex said...

Honestly I don't know how Walker has any chance in such a blue state. Walker's red-baiting politics are for Georgia, not Wisconsin.

mccullough said...

Mark

It's a poll, not a prediction. It's a snapshot of an election more than 2 months away. In two months, the Packers will be in last place.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Hey has rhhardin thought about, other than the media's obsession with marketing, doggies?

Because doggies draw eyeballs.

Men, women, others, all like the doggies.

So let's think of the best of dogs:

Barnett.

Per Spelling and Brennan; No brag, just fact.

Roy Lofquist said...

Polls:

Ten thousand soothsayers say their sooths. A couple come reasonably close and are declared prophets. At least until next year.

Some find this a lucrative endeavor - astrologers, economists, race track touts...

Jon said...


Walker is an open borders corporatist, who supports amnesty and favors unlimited "guest workers." The GOP will be better off if he loses, because then they will have one less presidential candidate who puts big donors' desire for cheap labor ahead of American workers. The path to victory for the GOP is to emulate Dave Brat, not Scott Walker.

Charles said...

The first poll in history where the Dem does better with likely voters. I call BS.

Indeed. (I do this for a living.)

The LV screen always leans more Republican than the RV number. In non-Presidential years, the trend is more pronounced. Those bear out on election day.

If Walker is up by 4 points among registered voters, he's up by >4 among the people who will show up in November.

Mark said...

Unskewing of polls again, the sure sign of a losing team.

SomeoneHasToSayIt said...


I'm pretty sure Mary Burke voted for Obama, perhaps both times.

That naive misjudgment alone should make her unfit to be governor.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

I take a utilitarian approach to this particular election. What outcome will maximize overall happiness in the state? Clearly a Walker defeat would make Garage so deliriously happy that this alone will outweigh any other factor, or combination of factors, that might count against such an outcome.

SomeoneHasToSayIt said...

AReasonableMan said...
I take a utilitarian approach to this particular election.


That's funny. Taking a utilitarian approach to this particular election, for these and for the coming times, I think Governor of a State increasingly will be needing a man at the helm.

Things are going to get ugly and nasty (e.g. civil unrest) and highly confrontational (e.g. with continued and relentless Federal encroachment on State's Rights) - stuff for which the natural dispositions of men, are more suited.

That's what a purely 'utilitarian' point of view leads to.

----------------
Definition.: u·til·i·tar·i·an
adjective

1. designed to be useful or practical rather than attractive.

Unknown said...

Okay....Burke wins in August and Walker wins in November.